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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 32nd Congress - Venice (2007) : THEME B: Data Acquisition and Processing For Scientific Knowledge and Public Awareness. : Can we rely on hydrologic models to make the right management decision? an mcda approach
Can we rely on hydrologic models to make the right management decision? an mcda approach
Author : Amin Elshorbagy
In this study the multi-criterion decision analysis (MCDA) technique is employed in a novel way to address the efficiency of watershed instrumentation programs and the efficacy of watershed modeling for watershed management decisions. A case study of reconstructed watersheds in northern Alberta, Canada, is used to illustrate the proposed usage of the MCDA technique. The watersheds have been disturbed as a result of oil sands mining activities. Assessing the performance of the reconstructed watersheds in restoring the hydrology of thedisturbed watershed is a crucial issue for both the mining industry and other stakeholders. The problem is formulated in a multi-criterion context. A pay-off matrix containing sevenevaluation criteria and three different soil covers as feasible alternatives is constructed. The SDW model is used to simulate the reconstructed watersheds over a period of 60 years using historical meteorological records. The three alternatives are ranked every year and, accordingly, the probability that a certain alternative dominates others is estimated. The alternative that has the highest probability is indicated as the best alternative, associated with that probability as the probability of making the right decision (PMRD). Various types of uncertainty analyses are conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the final decision to changesin the scores of the matrices. An index, named the confidence about the PMRD (C-PMRD), is developed to quantify the reliability of the results of the watershed model. The results highlight the utility of modeling as a possible alternative to some components of the intensive instrumentation program. Moreover, areas of deficiency and inaccuracies in the watershed model are identified for further improvements.
File Size : 112,043 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 32nd Congress - Venice (2007)
Article : THEME B: Data Acquisition and Processing For Scientific Knowledge and Public Awareness.
Date Published : 01/07/2007
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