IAHR, founded in 1935, is a worldwide independent member-based organisation of engineers and water specialists working in fields related to the hydro-environmental sciences and their practical application. Activities range from river and maritime hydraulics to water resources development and eco-hydraulics, through to ice engineering, hydroinformatics, and hydraulic machinery.
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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 34th Congress - Brisbane (2011) : THEME 1: Extremes and Variability : An australia-wide assessment of rainfall predictors for improved seasonal streamflow forecasts
An australia-wide assessment of rainfall predictors for improved seasonal streamflow forecasts
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In this study, we carried out an assessment of the ability of single climate index models to forecast rainfall in the next season across all of Australia on a 2.5 x 2.5 degree grid. The candidate predictors investigated were 13 climate indices that have been linked to Australian climate in the research literature. The models were assessed using the pseudo Bayes factor calculated from crossvalidation predictive densities. We examined the time-space evolution of the predictability associated with the El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean and Extratropical climate drivers. We found strong evidence for using climate indices to forecast rainfall in late winter and spring. In contrast, climate indices showed little ability for forecasting rainfall in autumn. We explain how rainfall forecasts are useful for streamflow forecasting.
File Size : 281,710 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 34th Congress - Brisbane (2011)
Article : THEME 1: Extremes and Variability
Date Published : 07/08/2012
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