IAHR, founded in 1935, is a worldwide independent member-based organisation of engineers and water specialists working in fields related to the hydro-environmental sciences and their practical application. Activities range from river and maritime hydraulics to water resources development and eco-hydraulics, through to ice engineering, hydroinformatics, and hydraulic machinery.
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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 34th Congress - Brisbane (2011) : THEME 1: Extremes and Variability : Observed runoff variability and projected change in the la plata basin
Observed runoff variability and projected change in the la plata basin
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The actual and potential impact of climate change scenarios on the runoff regime in the La Plata Basin was investigated within the framework of the CLARIS international research project. In the investigated basin, which includes Rio Paraną at Paraną-Santa Fe (2 500 000 km²) and measures 3 100 000 km² at the outlet, a large number of reservoirs, as Yaciretą and Itaipł, are located. A statistical analysis using Mann-Kendall test, Student’s t-test; Spearman ρ test was conducted on long series of observed runoff and precipitation in the La Plata basin and statistically representative trends were observed for some data sets. An assessment of actual and projected hydrological regime was performed using Thornthwaite–Mather model to assess actual evapotranspiration, calibrated using soil storage capacity. An analysis of the impact of SRES A1B projections of the up to date ECHAM5 Global Circulation Model was then performed. The model predicts an increase of mean annual precipitation of about 3% and a temperature increase of 1.0°C in 2040. Accordingly an increase of potential evapotranspiration (+13%) and of effective evapotranspiration (+7%) and a decrease of 15% of annual runoff volume was foreseen, thus leading to a reduction of available volume for hydropower production.
File Size : 536,769 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 34th Congress - Brisbane (2011)
Article : THEME 1: Extremes and Variability
Date Published : 01/07/2011
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