IAHR, founded in 1935, is a worldwide independent member-based organisation of engineers and water specialists working in fields related to the hydro-environmental sciences and their practical application. Activities range from river and maritime hydraulics to water resources development and eco-hydraulics, through to ice engineering, hydroinformatics, and hydraulic machinery.
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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Special sessions : Surrogate modeling for failure probability estimation of multifunctional flood defences
Surrogate modeling for failure probability estimation of multifunctional flood defences
Author : J.P. AGUILAR LPEZ (1), J.J. WARMINK(2) , R.M.J. SCHIELEN(3) & S.J.M.H. HULSCHER(4)
ABSTRACT
Reliability of flood defences is one of the main concerns of water managers in low land countries such as the Netherlands. Population growth, economic development and climate change are main drivers for the development of solutions such as multifunctional flood defences (MFFD). This type of structure combines the primary flood defence function with additional ones such as commercial, residential and recreational. Failure mechanisms of mono functional flood defenses have been studied for a long time in the Netherlands, in order to estimate more accurately the reliability of their flood defense system. MFFDs will probably be exposed to these same failure mechanisms but their occurrence might also be triggered by the effect of complementary functions embedded in the defence body. The present study aims to develop a methodology which allows to consider the effect of structure embedment in the occurrence of piping erosion failure mechanism. In particular for the eventual embedment of a sewer pipe underneath a flood defence. The method consisted in modelling via finite element a flood defence with and without a sewer pipe embedded underneath. In order to consider the erosion progression for different water level and hydraulic conductivities, a simplified method for solving the aquifer flow was implemented. From the results obtained, two artificial neural network emulators where trained and validated. As a final step the emulators where used for failure estimation by several Monte Carlo runs. The main results from the study show that the embedment of and additional structure will change the failure probability significantly (by a factor of 8 in the present study) and that emulators are capable of representing the highly nonlinear behavior of complex models without significantly compromising the calculation accuracy.
File Size : 562,990 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Special sessions
Date Published : 12/08/2015
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