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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 34th Congress - Brisbane (2011) : THEME 1: Extremes and Variability : Is the mid-1990's step change in south-eastern australian climate part of a longer term climate shif...
Is the mid-1990's step change in south-eastern australian climate part of a longer term climate shift that began in the 1970's?
Author :
South-eastern Australia (SEA) has experienced a step change in climate since the mid- 1990’s that has resulted in a marked reduction in rainfall and runoff. However, it is not yet understood if this step change represents a permanent shift to a new climate state or a temporary shift that in time will return to pre 1990s conditions. It is also not clear how/if this climate shift is related to changes in climate observed in Southwest Western Australia and elsewhere during the mid-1970’s. Without this understanding it is difficult to plan for future water availability in the region. For example, do we need to change the ‘baseline’ estimation of climate to reflect the ‘new’ climate state or is the mid-1990’s step change part of a long term natural cycle that also needs to be simulated in modelling scenarios for future planning? This paper provides new insight into these important questions by determining how/if the mid-1990's climate shift in SEA is related to the widespread step change in Southern Hemisphere climate observed during in the mid-1970's. Importantly, the findings presented here have marked implications for water management and climate
attribution studies in SEA.
File Size : 779,280 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 34th Congress - Brisbane (2011)
Article : THEME 1: Extremes and Variability
Date Published : 01/07/2011
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