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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change : Forecasting the spatial distribution of drought-induced risk
Forecasting the spatial distribution of drought-induced risk
Author : MANUEL DEL JESUS(1), JUSTIN SHEFFIELD(2), FERNANDO J. M¨ŚNDEZ(1), ANTONIO ESPEJO(1) & IÑIGO J. LOSADA(1)
ABSTRACT
Drought is characterized by a water deficit that may manifest across a large range of spatial and temporal scales. Drought may generate important socioeconomic
consequences, many times of catastrophic dimensions. Drought forecasting is useful as a management tool because it allows preparing
mitigation measures before disaster strikes. For the present work we characterize drought through quantiles of soil moisture. In order to illustrate the
methodology, it is applies to the country of Paraguay. We develop an auto-regressive logistic model for drought prediction at different temporal scales
that makes use of a spatially explicit framework. Our model allows to include covariates, continuous or categorical, to improve the performance of the
auto-regressive component. Our approach makes use of dimensionality reduction (principal component analysis) and classification techniques (KMeans
and maximum dissimilarity) to simplify the representation of complex climatic patterns. The model allows to quantify the uncertainty of the
forecasts and can be easily adapted to make predictions under future climatic scenarios. The framework herein presented may be extended to other
applications such as flash flood analysis, or risk assessment of natural hazards.
File Size : 155,993 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change
Date Published : 14/08/2015
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