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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change : A simplified periodical detection method for long term sequences based on rescaled range analysis
A simplified periodical detection method for long term sequences based on rescaled range analysis
Author : KEJING LIU (1),
ABSTRACT
Rescaled range (R/S) analysis is a non-parameter method for persistence detection in time series based on fractal theory,
it was applied in a short series and a long record about floods and droughts of Huaihe River basin in Henan province. The
short one is standardized precipitation index (SPI) series of 1957-2008, and the long one is a drought and waterlogging
grade sequence of 1470-1980. The short record presents strong anti-persistenc and without significant trend for the
existence. But the long record presents a significant trend of drought and with strong persistence. For quantified relation
exists between Hausdorff dimension D0 used in the R/S analysis and generalized entropy S0, by build link between
method of principle of maximum entropy (POME) and the R/S analysis, this paper got a new period detection method of
extremes, it computes S0 of every section in a sequence and increment S0(i) of every point to its previous time, for
change happen at position with large S0(i), section between two change points can take as a period with one trend, and
significant of a change can be measure with the quantile. The method has been applied in the records and found that
periods of the long record almost cover periods of the short records, and the long term periods composed with the short
term periods. This result inferred that though long term series and short term series of extremes present different
persistence, the short one can be taken as a part of the lone one, or a fractal of it. Short term events have cumulative
effect to future.
File Size : 478,747 bytes
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Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change
Date Published : 14/08/2015
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