IAHR, founded in 1935, is a worldwide independent member-based organisation of engineers and water specialists working in fields related to the hydro-environmental sciences and their practical application. Activities range from river and maritime hydraulics to water resources development and eco-hydraulics, through to ice engineering, hydroinformatics, and hydraulic machinery.
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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Flood risk management and adaptation : Flood hazard mapping in the coastal zone: accounting for multiple drivers of flood risk
Flood hazard mapping in the coastal zone: accounting for multiple drivers of flood risk
Author : ADAM LUKE1, JOCHEN E SCHUBERT1, TIMU W GALLIEN2, AMIR AGHAKOUCHAK1, RICHARD MATTHEW3, BRETT F SANDERS1
ABSTRACT
Delineating flood zones in systems that are susceptible to flooding from a single mechanism is a relatively well-defined
procedure with specific guidance from government agencies such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
and the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in the USA. However, there is relatively little guidance in delineating
flood zones associated with multiple mechanisms such as storm surge, high tides, and riverine discharge. Deterministic
hydraulic modeling simulations involving the coincidence of multiple extremes can be used to identify possible flood hazards,
but deciding which scenarios to simulate is challenging due to the infinite number of events that are possible when considering
multiple drivers of flooding. Moreover, deterministic modeling ignores the uncertainty associated within the modeling process,
which is especially significant in the context of inundation mapping due to the large amount of uncertainty in the magnitude of
extreme events. This study presents a stochastic modeling framework for generating annual exceedance probability (AEP)
maps which considers the uncertainty in the model boundary forcing and the joint occurrence of flooding mechanisms. The
methodology will be applied to Tijuana, Mexico and the produced AEP map will be compared to: (1) an inundation map
depicting contours of the ¡°canonical¡± flooding events, ignoring uncertainty in boundary forcing and joint occurrences of
extremes, and (2) an AEP map which considers only uncertainty in the boundary forcing but not the joint occurrence of
extremes. Results will demonstrate how the consideration of uncertainty and multiple drivers of flooding can affect the
predictions of flood hazards in the coastal zone.
File Size : 178,666 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Flood risk management and adaptation
Date Published : 14/08/2015
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