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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change : Climate change impacts on extreme precipitation in greek areas
Climate change impacts on extreme precipitation in greek areas
Author : PANAGIOTA GALIATSATOU(1), PANAYOTIS PRINOS(2), SOTIRIS PAGONOPOULOS(3)
ABSTRACT
In the current paper the effects of climate change on precipitation extremes in Greece are studied. The projections of
RegCM3_10 climatic model in particular are evaluated, for a time period of 150 years (1951-2100) in four regions of Greece.
The available precipitation data is separated in three parts of equal size (fifty years each), in order to represent the fifty years
of the current, the short-term and the long-term future climate. Model precipitation data is found to hold bias, commonly
detected in regional climate models, making it necessary to perform various methods of bias correction. Both parametric
and non-parametric methods are used for all four regions analysed, selecting the most appropriate for each region. Extreme
value theory (EVT) is then implemented for the bias corrected precipitation datasets and both GEV (Generalized Extreme
Value Distribution) and GPD (Generalized Pareto Distribution) are fitted. For the GPD, declustering of the excesses over
the selected threshold is used to insure independence of exceedences. Return level estimates of each 50 year-period are
calculated and compared to assess the changes in the extreme precipitation climate between present and future conditions.
File Size : 628,940 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change
Date Published : 17/08/2015
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