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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Flood risk management and adaptation : Evaluation of design hydrograph methods and probabilistic methods for
Evaluation of design hydrograph methods and probabilistic methods for
Author : J.C. POL(1), M. KOK(2), H.J. BARNEVELD(3), O. MORALES-NAPOLES(4) & R.M.J. SCHIELEN(5)
Design water levels are needed for the design of flood defences along the Dutch river Meuse. Current practise is that
these water levels are determined by hydrodynamic simulation of a standard design hydrograph at the upstream gauging
station Borgharen. The peak discharge of this synthetic hydrograph is based on a frequency analysis of the 100-year
discharge dataset and its shape is determined by scaling and averaging all hydrographs in the dataset. Subsequently it
is assumed that the simulated water levels along the river have the same return period as the peak discharge at
Borgharen. This paper evaluates the accuracy of the current method and alternative methods to determine design water
levels, using a dataset of 50,000 years of generated discharges at the station Borgharen based on extrapolation of
rainfall events. The alternative methods include both design hydrograph methods and new methods that incorporate the
hydrograph shape in a probabilistic way. The peak curvature is used as second stochastic variable in the probabilistic
methods. The methods are evaluated by comparison with a reference set composed of 1D hydrodynamic simulations of
all floods in the 50,000 year dataset. The results show that the currently used standard hydrograph method
overestimates the design water levels up to 35 cm with respect to the reference. Alternative methods yield more accurate
design water level estimates. The results obtained show no significant difference in accuracy between the probabilistic
methods and the vertically averaged design hydrograph method.
File Size : 2,552,764 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Flood risk management and adaptation
Date Published : 17/08/2015
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