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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Special sessions : Numerical modelling of storm surges in the mediterranean sea under climate
Numerical modelling of storm surges in the mediterranean sea under climate
Author : CHRISTOS V. MAKRIS(1), YANNIS S. ANDROULIDAKIS (1), YANNIS N. KRESTENITIS (1), KATERINA K. KOMBIADOU(1) & VASSILIS N.
ABSTRACT
Extreme storm surge events pose a great threat to low-elevation coastal areas and can cause loss of land and property,
damages to structures and defenses, and even human casualties. Hereby, we explore the trends of meteorologically
induced extremes of sea level in the Mediterranean Sea, with a specific focus on the Greek seas, for a period of 150
years (1951-2100). The analysis is based on hydrodynamic simulations of storm surges with a couple of high spatial
resolution model implementations for 2D shallow water equations, the Greek Climate Surge Model (GreCSM), which is
nested to the coarser domain of the Mediterranean Climate Surge Model (MeCSM). The latter are implemented under
IPCC’s A1B climate scenario that considers increasing future concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. In this
framework, in situ measurements from several areas, during the last 50 years, are used to evaluate the models’ results.
Statistical indices and spatial distributions of extremes, from both historical data and modelling, show good agreement.
This confirms the ability of our models to estimate the response of the sea surface to future climatic conditions. We also
investigate the future trends, the variability and occurrence frequency of extreme sea level anomalies and the main
forcing mechanisms that can induce strong surges in the Mediterranean basin and the Greek seas. Our results support
that there is a general decreasing trend in storminess under the considered climate scenario. However, this is mostly
related to the occurrence frequency of sea-surface maxima and the spatial coverage of storm surges, yet not to the
actual magnitudes of sea level maxima that can increase during the 21st century. We show that the different
morphological characteristics of the regional Seas in the Mediterranean basin have a significant influence on the
variability of extreme events, and there are also clear distinctions in the seasonal variability of extremes under the A1B
scenario. The significant storm surge extremes, along the Mediterranean and the Greek coastlines, are predicted until
2100, through the use of recently proposed Indices. The impact of Climate Change on the evolution of storm surge
extremes on the Greek coastal zone is also investigated.
File Size : 7,080,785 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Special sessions
Date Published : 18/08/2015
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