IAHR, founded in 1935, is a worldwide independent member-based organisation of engineers and water specialists working in fields related to the hydro-environmental sciences and their practical application. Activities range from river and maritime hydraulics to water resources development and eco-hydraulics, through to ice engineering, hydroinformatics, and hydraulic machinery.
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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Flood risk management and adaptation : Transferability and parameter uncertainty of hydrological models for estimating future mean and extr...
Transferability and parameter uncertainty of hydrological models for estimating future mean and extreme discharges in the context of climate change
Previous studies on climate change impacts have paid considerable attention on assessing the uncertainties associated
with greenhouse gas emission scenarios and General Circulation Model (GCM) structures. Increasing studies stress the
need for routinely testing the performance and analyzing uncertainty of hydrological models in the impact assessment.
The overarching objectives of this study are 1) to investigate the transferability of the hydrological model parameters to
climatic conditions that are different from that in the calibration period, and 2) to compare the uncertainties in the future
mean and extreme river discharges due to the equifinality of model parameters and the choice of calibration periods. A
lumped Xinanjiang Hydrological Model of the Huai River Basin in China is used to test the methodology. The
transferability of model parameters is tested in the context of historical climate variability using the differential splitsample
test. Four GCMs participating in the CMIP5 data portal are selected. The results show that the transferability of
the parameters calibrated from a wet period to a dry period is poorer than the other way around. The model error as well
as the variability in the simulation due to equifinality increase with the increase in the difference in rainfall amounts
between the calibration and validation periods. Generally, the uncertainty due to the choice of calibration periods takes
larger share of the total parameter uncertainty in the projected future mean discharge. When the calibration period
contains enough information of climate variability, the equifinality becomes the main source of parameter uncertainty for
high-return-period extreme discharge. The results will provide the basis for better understanding the uncertainties in
assessing hydrological impacts of climate change
File Size : 455,808 bytes
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Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Flood risk management and adaptation
Date Published : 18/08/2015
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