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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Special sessions : Estimating the effects of climate change on storm surge extremes in the greek seas
Estimating the effects of climate change on storm surge extremes in the greek seas
In the present work the effects of climate change on storm surge extremes in selected areas of the Greek Seas are
studied. Storm surge data result from a two dimensional model of hydrodynamic circulation for the Greek Seas covering a
period of 150 years (1950-2099). The atmospheric forcing of the model comprises of wind and sea level pressure fields of
the regional climate model RegCM3. The available storm surge time series are separated in three parts of almost equal
size, to represent the present, the short-term and the long-term future climate. Storm surge extremes of each period are
first examined for possible trends in their frequency of occurrence and in their magnitude by means of a non-stationary
GEV distribution function fitted to annual maxima. The analysis of the storm surge extremes then proceeds by using a nonstationary
statistical GEV distribution function that simulates the variability within a year of the monthly maxima. The
parameters of the distribution are modelled as harmonic functions of time representing the annual and the seasonal cycle.
In each selected location and each period, twenty-six candidate models are fitted to the monthly maxima. To avoid
overparameterisation and to select the appropriate number of parameters for each time period and each location, the
Akaike Information Criterion with correction for small sample size and the deviance statistic criterion are utilized. After
selecting an appropriate model for the extremes, time-dependent quantiles of storm surge within an one year period are
assessed for each period and point considered. Apart from time dependent quantiles, annual return levels are also
approximated by means of numerical integration of the fitted non-stationary model. The time dependent, as well as the
annual quantiles for each point and for the three different periods (present and future climate) considered are compared to
estimate the effects of climate change on storm surge extremes.
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Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Special sessions
Date Published : 18/08/2015
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