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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change : An analysis of change in flood indicators in the elbe and rhine river: implications for the selectio...
An analysis of change in flood indicators in the elbe and rhine river: implications for the selection of design discharges
Author : CHRISTOPH MUDERSBACH(1,2), JENS BENDER(2,3) & FABIAN NETZEL(1)
ABSTRACT
Within this investigation, we focused on analyses of the discharge data of the gauge Neu Darchau (Elbe River), which is
the most downstream discharge gauge of the Elbe River before it becomes an estuary. We followed the questions, if the
discharge characteristics of the Elbe River have changed over the last decades and how much the design discharges
(i.e. HQ100) are affected by the latest extreme events in 2002, 2006, 2011 and 2013. Hence, we conducted (i) an
assessment of time-dependencies of the design discharge HQ100 by using extreme value statistics with both block
maxima and peak-over-threshold approaches and (ii) an estimation of confidence levels for the time-dependent behavior
of the design discharges by means of Monte-Carlo simulations using autoregressive models. For the sake of comparison
we also did the same analyses for the gauge Cologne (Rhine River), whereas for this gauge only the final results are
shown. For the gauge Neu Darchau many flood indicators move towards the upper confidence bands. The hydrological
situation at the gauge Cologne differs from the one at the gauge Neu Darchau, since no severe flood events within the
last 10-15 years occurred at the Rhine River. Thus, the HQ100 levels are not that unstable over the last years. However,
the extreme floods in 1993 and 1995 had a large impact on the HQ100 levels.
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File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change
Date Published : 18/08/2015
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