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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Flood risk management and adaptation : Monte carlo modelling using a 1d hydraulic model for assessing dam operation
Monte carlo modelling using a 1d hydraulic model for assessing dam operation
Author : MARK BABISTER(1)(2), MONIQUE RETALLICK(1), MELAINE LOVERIDGE(1), IVAN VARGA(1) & PETER STENSMYR(1)
ABSTRACT
The Hawkesbury Nepean River passes through some of the most populated western suburbs of Sydney, Australia.
Warragamba Dam is located on the Hawkesbury Nepean and supplies around 80 % of Sydney¡¯s water. Downstream of
the dam are a large number of flood prone properties and lives at risk from flooding. The Hawkesbury Nepean has a very
large flood range. In 1867 flood waters rose over 19m above their normal tidal level at the town of Windsor.
Australian flood estimation practice is also evolving where design inputs are often characterized as an ensemble or
probabilistically, instead of as a single input. This is often described as a Monte Carlo approach. Using this type of
approach is very important when studying dam operations as an ensemble of temporal patterns will much better test the
performance of gate operations then a single pattern for which the gate could be optimized. A Monte Carlo framework was
developed to allow a more robust assessment of the short term operational changes proposed for Warragamba Dam. For
each scenario the equivalent of a 200,000 year flood record is developed and run through hydrologic and hydraulic
models.
The Monte Carlo model allowed the impact on downstream flooding to be assessed for a range of flood events.
Information was extracted and analysed from the model results to inform the assessment of options and emergency
management planning
File Size : 1,066,819 bytes
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Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Flood risk management and adaptation
Date Published : 18/08/2015
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