IAHR, founded in 1935, is a worldwide independent member-based organisation of engineers and water specialists working in fields related to the hydro-environmental sciences and their practical application. Activities range from river and maritime hydraulics to water resources development and eco-hydraulics, through to ice engineering, hydroinformatics, and hydraulic machinery.
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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Flood risk management and adaptation : Probability of flood scheme failure
Probability of flood scheme failure
Author : GRAEME SMART
ABSTRACT
There is significant uncertainty in the degree of flood protection offered by flood control schemes due to failures which can
occur below the scheme design flood level. This can be from mechanisms such as piping, debris jams, out-flanking, bank
scouring, bank slumping, landslides and capacity loss through in-channel deposition. By considering the likelihood of flood
control schemes being compromised at levels other than the design flood an overall, better estimate of probability of scheme
failure can be determined. Full technical investigation of all aspects of all flood control schemes in New Zealand would be
prohibitively expensive, however, flood practitioners can heuristically estimate the probability that the schemes will fail under
different flood loadings for schemes with which they are familiar. From these data the overall annual exceedance probability
of failure of a scheme can be calculated. This study presents such an analysis for a sample comprising about half of New
Zealandí»s flood control schemes and provides estimates of the effectiveness of flood hazard mitigation measures in NZ.
Unless scheme upgrades are undertaken (several are already underway), the study indicates that the probability of serious
failures on some NZ flood schemes is high.
File Size : 553,015 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Flood risk management and adaptation
Date Published : 18/08/2015
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