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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Flood risk management and adaptation : Probabilistic sea level forecast for venice: ensemble system and ¡°dressed¡± deterministic predictio...
Probabilistic sea level forecast for venice: ensemble system and ¡°dressed¡± deterministic prediction
Author : RICCARDO MEL(1), PIERO LIONELLO(2), LUCA CARNIELLO(3) & LUIGI D¡¯ALPAOS(4)
ABSTRACT
This contribution describes recent work on the development of an operational sea level (SL) prediction
system for the city of Venice. The quality of sea level (SL) forecast is crucial for the management and
maintenance of this city and for operating the movable barriers that are planned to become operational in
2016 for its protection. Recent studies have described the development of an Ensemble Prediction System
(EPS) and its effectiveness for delivering a fully informative prediction including a probabilistic forecast for
SL in Venice. This paper discusses a simplified procedure where the full implementation of this method,
which requires performing multiple simulations with deterministic models, is avoided. The procedure
¡°dresses¡± the deterministic prediction of SL in the northern Adriatic Sea with an estimate of its uncertainty that
is based on a simple algorithm. This is possible because uncertainty in sea level forecast is to a large extent
caused by the uncertainties affecting the forcing meteorological fields, on the predicted value of sea level
and it increases with the forecast time range. Here, the results of an operational forecast procedure applied
for a 3-month long period in the year 2010, during which an exceptional sequence of storm surges occurred,
are shown and compared to Italian and Croatian tide gauges distributed along the coast of the Adriatic Sea. It
is shown that the dressed prediction can provide an acceptably realistic estimate of the uncertainty.
File Size : 204,021 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Flood risk management and adaptation
Date Published : 18/08/2015
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