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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Water resources and hydroinformatics : Evaluation of uncertainty estimates in distributed hydrological modeling for micro watershed in goda...
Evaluation of uncertainty estimates in distributed hydrological modeling for micro watershed in godavari river in india using sufi-2, and parasol methods
Author : Regulwar D.G.1 and Nagargoje Sonali R.2
els always suffer from different sources of uncertainties. As the distributed hydrological models play vital
role in water resource management, reliable quantification of uncertainty in hydrological modeling results is quite
necessary. The objective of the present study is to apply two uncertainty analysis methods to a distributed hydrological
modeling system, quantify the impact of parameter uncertainties, and examine their performance and capability. SWAT
(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) is a comprehensive, semi-distributed river basin model that requires a large number of
input parameters, which complicates model parameterization and calibration. Several calibration techniques have been
developed for SWAT, including manual calibration procedures and automated procedures using the shuffled complex
evolution method and other common methods. In addition, SWAT-CUP was recently developed and provides a decisionmaking
framework that incorporates a semi-automated approach (SUFI2, ParaSol) using both manual and automated
calibration and incorporating sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. In SWAT-CUP, users can manually adjust parameters
and ranges iteratively between auto calibration runs. The user interaction or manual component of the SWAT-CUP
calibration forces the user to obtain a better understanding of the overall hydrologic processes (e.g., base flow ratios, ET,
sediment sources and sinks, crop yields, and nutrient balances) and of parameter sensitivity. When calibrating a physically
based model like SWAT, it is important to remember that all model input parameters must be kept within a realistic
uncertainty range and that no automatic procedure can substitute for actual physical knowledge of the watershed. The
selected site of water shed is under overexploited stage according to CGWB report. BMP¡¯s should be implemented for the
present case study for sustainable development. This micro watershed lies in Godavari river basin which flows through
Paithan, Khuldabad villages of Aurangabad district Maharashtra state India. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT)
model was applied to estimate the surface runoff during 1985-2010 and validated by the observed data. Two uncertainty
analysis methods were further conducted and compared within the same modeling framework: (1) the sequential
uncertainty fitting algorithm (SUFI-2), and (3) the parameter solution (ParaSol) method. Through the comparison of a set
of proposed evaluation criteria for uncertainty analysis methods in this study, including R-factor, P-factor, computation
efficiency, and performance of best estimates, the SUFI-2 method was able to provide more reasonable and balanced
predictive results. SWAT-CUP provides a decision-making framework that incorporates a semi-automated approach
(SUFI2) using both manual and automated calibration incorporating sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.Form Required :
File Size : 696,929 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Water resources and hydroinformatics
Date Published : 20/08/2015
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