IAHR, founded in 1935, is a worldwide independent member-based organisation of engineers and water specialists working in fields related to the hydro-environmental sciences and their practical application. Activities range from river and maritime hydraulics to water resources development and eco-hydraulics, through to ice engineering, hydroinformatics, and hydraulic machinery.
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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change : Extreme value analysis in typhoon prone areas a case study of the pearl river estuary
Extreme value analysis in typhoon prone areas a case study of the pearl river estuary
tropical storms and typhoons are often the determining factor for the extreme values of wind, wave and water level conditions. The stochastic behavior of typhoons and tropical storms, however, lead to uncertainty in the standard extreme value analysis of these parameters, because a slight variation of the typhoon track, propagation speed or wind speed intensity can have a significant impact on the local extreme hydrodynamic conditions. To determine the significance of the stochastic behavior of typhoons a numerical model assessment (Delft3D) has been performed comparing standard extreme value analysis values of measured water levels (e.g. values of 1/10, 1/50, and 1/100 year return periods) against model results of both historic and artificial typhoons. By quantifying the potential impact of artificial typhoons the uncertainties in the extreme water level values in typhoon prone areas are better assessed. From the assessment it shows that the total water level can be 10% higher for the modeled artificial typhoon and can exceed the once per 100 year extreme total water level estimates. They are however generally within the 95% confidence interval of the estimate. Although the results are within the confidence intervals of the extreme value analysis it is concluded that the modeling of artificial typhoons could be a valuable addition to the standard extreme value analyses and scenario based modeling commonly performed.Form Required :Pub
File Size : 1,133,167 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change
Date Published : 20/08/2015
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