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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change : Future flow duration projection of bayesian ensemble model using the ihacres model
Future flow duration projection of bayesian ensemble model using the ihacres model
Author : MOON SOOJIN (1), HYUN SUKHOON (2) & KANG BOOSIK (3)
Abstract
As the most important source for the climate change assessment in the future, IPCC fifth Assessment Report provides a
various models for RCP scenario. However, there are too much data and large uncertainty to select a suitable model for
the current climatic environment in Korea. Therefore, BMA(Bayesian Model Averaging) method, one of Multi-Model
Ensemble method, is applied in this study. BMA is a statistical method selecting the best model comparing weighted
averages of each different model. For ensuring reliability of rainfall estimation, the optimum ensemble model is generated
combining each model projection using BMA method. For flow duration analysis, IHACRES model which calculate the net
rain fall and run-off discharge based on sources of temperature and rainfall in basin is used. In sum, in this study, to
simulate the inflow using rainfall data of future climate change scenarios with Bayesian ensemble model. Based on the
simulation results, the flow duration changes in the future period (2021~2100 years) will be simulated and analyzed.
File Size : 539,421 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change
Date Published : 27/08/2015
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