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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change : Sea level changes along the coast of sandakan town, sabah, malaysia: projection and inundation cover...
Sea level changes along the coast of sandakan town, sabah, malaysia: projection and inundation coverage
frequency and severity of extreme weather conditions witnessed
in recent years are ostensibly linked to changing climate. Coastal areas are
particularly bearing the brunt of this change. An issue that deserves serious
study is the Sea Level Rise (SLR) in coastal districts, especially those with low
lying areas such as Sandakan on the east coast of Sabah. Analysis of recent
climate change scenario has indicated a great deal of uncertainty at global
scale observation, requiring intensive examination at local level to understand
vulnerability and develop adaptive capabilities. The Mean Sea Level (MSL) and
sea level trends were determined from the 18 years Sandakan tidal data from
the year 1994 to 2011. The analysis followed Pivot Table tools and trend line
Analysis where daily average sea level trends were used to forecast the future
sea level for the year 2100. MIKE 21 Flexible Mesh (FM) is the numerical model
tools used to assess the hydrodynamic condition incorporated with the
projected water level obtained from the regression model. Digital Terrain Model
(DTM) with resolution of 30 m and approximate 300 m width from water edge
was integrate with the model bathymetry to produce detail and updated
bathymetry profile. The model also calibrated with measured water level data
deployed at site from 10th to 22 May 2012. Geographic Information System
(GIS) were used to draw the inundation map and calculate the area impacted. It
is indicated MSL is at 2.706 m with sea level trends for daily is 5.3 mm/yr. The
projected water level for the year 2040 and 2080 is estimated to be around
2983 mm and 3175 mm forecasted by regression model of Minitab 16
software. The numerical model simulation for the years 2020, 2040 and 2060
has indicated significant water level increment inside Sandakan Bay. Total
potential inundated area for the year 2040 and 2080 are 2.41 km2 and 2.67 km2
respectively. The study pointed out the necessity of incorporating other factors
of day- to- day influences and extreme events phenomenon with the inundation
area based on tidal data analysis outcome to obtained more realistic flood
inundation profiles in accordance to SLR. Evidently, sea level rise has severely
creates potential future threats in term of inundation, possible flooding and
erosion along the coastal area of Sandakan town.Form Required :
File Size : 3,021,717 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change
Date Published : 27/08/2015
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