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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Flood risk management and adaptation : Estimating storm surge extreme water levels by monte carlo and hydrodynamic model in colombo south c...
Estimating storm surge extreme water levels by monte carlo and hydrodynamic model in colombo south container terminal project, sri lanka
Author : FENG GAO(1),KEHUA WANG(2),AND SUDONG XU (3)
ntainer terminal project lies at the middle of west coast of Sri-Lanka, west of Bengal Bay. It is influenced
by the perennial monsoon climate. Though the high frequency of tropical cyclone, the intensity is weak and wind speed is
not high when it passes across Sri-Lanka because Sri-Lanka island locates in the low latitude zone. Different strength
cyclones would seriously impact or attack project area, maybe causing heavy surge and enormous losses for harbor
engineering. Therefore, it is very important to consider meteorological conditions such as tropical cyclone. The recorded
historical water levels in Colombo are not long enough to do the traditional frequency analysis in predicting extreme water
levels, such as 50, 100 and 200 year extreme water levels. The numerical simulation approach, can be used when no
adequate observational record of flood levels exists. In this study, the potential cyclone storm surge is simulated by the
Monte Carlo and hydrodynamic model. According to the probability distribution functions, there are 53 cyclones could have
happened in 200 years. A series of cyclone¡¯s parameters for the proposed 53 cyclones are simulated by Monte Carlo. The
storm surge water level series are obtained for each simulated cyclone by using Adcirc model. By ranking the maximum
water level in each storm surge procedure, the estimation on extreme high water levels as well as low extreme water levels
for the desired return period are proposed in this study. The estimated extreme high water levels with return period of 50,
100 and 200 years are 1.25, 1.37 and 1.45 meters correspondingly. The estimated extreme low water levels with return
period of 50, 100 and 200 years are -0.09, -0.19 and -0.38 meters separately.Form Required :
File Size : 1,500,522 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Flood risk management and adaptation
Date Published : 28/08/2015
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