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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Flood risk management and adaptation : Uncertainty in the flood risk assessment: a strategy in a changing world
Uncertainty in the flood risk assessment: a strategy in a changing world
Author : MIGUEL LAVERDE (1), GA. CORZO (1) & DP. SOLOMANTINE (1,2)
ABSTRACT
Decisions on flood risk are usually based over stationary environment conditions and deterministic approaches to
represent flood hazard. The natural behaviour of the processes and the way to represent it, are highly uncertain. In recent
years, probabilistic methods to represent this uncertainty has become popular to get a better understanding of the flow
process chain recognizing the uncertainties of the physical process modelled. However, uncertainty analysis is not usually
taken into account within flood risk assessment. In this paper, we explore the role of the uncertainty analysis into the flood
risk management and the new challenges to be considered in a dynamic environment. In addition, an stochastic
framework to assess the flood risk is presented in order to determinate the impact of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
into a robust flood damage chain. The flood model is a coupled probabilistic system integrated by distributed hydrological
model and two dimensional hydrodynamic model. This methodology uses a Monte Carlo framework structured in two
levels representing different sources of uncertainty (aleatory and epistemic uncertainty). In the first level, aleatory
uncertainty is analysed due to the increase of frequency and magnitude in the rainfall and changes in the behaviour of
social distribution. The second level explores the epistemic uncertainty as a product of individual uncertainties in the
hydrological and hydrodynamic model and its implication in the flood hazard. This analysis also explores uncertainties in
extreme value statistics caused by the type of distribution function. We close this paper argue in favour of uncertainty
analysis in flood risk assessment in order to improve the flood risk analysis and support better-informed decision making.
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Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Flood risk management and adaptation
Date Published : 28/08/2015
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