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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Flood risk management and adaptation : Assessing the historical residual flood-risk evolution over large floodable areas: dependence of the...
Assessing the historical residual flood-risk evolution over large floodable areas: dependence of the results on the 2d hydrodynamic numerical model
This study investigates the evolution of the flood risk along the middle-lower reach of the River Po (length ~350 km,
Northern Italy). The analysis starts from the common perception that, due to a combination of different causes, the flood
risk is dramatically increasing in Europe and in other areas of the world, which is supported by the steadily increasing
economic flood losses recorded worldwide. We refer in particular to the residual flood-risk and we consider an inundation
scenario simulated by means of a simplified quasi-two-dimensional (quasi-2D) hydrodynamic model that reproduces the
hydraulic behavior of a large floodable area outside the main embankment system of the Po river (named ˇ°C-Bufferˇ±) for
an exceptional flood event with a 500-year return period; then we perform a detailed flood risk assessment for different
land-use scenarios and population dynamics that have been observed for the C-Buffer over the last five decades. The
detailed flood-risk assessment refers separately to four hydraulic compartments located within the C-Buffer, which
according to the study inundation scenario are flooded during the exceptional event. In particular, the analyses use flooddamage
curves proposed in the literature coupled with a reproduction of the inundation dynamics simulated by two fully
two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic models based on 2D shallow water Saint-Venant equations: Hec-Ras 5.0 and
Telemac-2D. The former model has been recently released and enables users to perform combined one-dimensional (1D)
and 2D unsteady-flow simulations (i.e. combining 1D reaches and storage areas with 2D flow areas schematized with
finite-volume method), while the latter is a widely employed and well known 2D finite-element scheme. The comparison
enabled us to assess how recent land-use changes affected the residual risk in the study area and, indirectly, to quantify
the dependence of flood-risk assessments on the considered 2D model, i.e. Telemac-2D and the new Hec-Ras 5.0.
File Size : 1,849,304 bytes
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Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Flood risk management and adaptation
Date Published : 28/08/2015
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