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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change : An operational statistical scheme for tropical cyclone induced wind gust forecast
An operational statistical scheme for tropical cyclone induced wind gust forecast
Author : QINGLAN LI(1), PENGCHENG XU(2), XINGBAO WANG(3), HONGPING LAN(4), CHUNYAN CAO(5), GUANGXIN LI(6), LIJIE ZHANG(7)
ABSTRACT
This study tries to supply a quantitative forecast method through an investigation of the relationship between the wind
gusts observed at the automatic weather stations (AWSs) and TCs¡¯ main characteristics, i.e., TC intensity, TC distance
to the station, TC¡¯s azimuth relative to the station. Historical TCs data from 1968 to 2013 within the distance of 700KM
to several AWSs in South China are analyzed. The wind gust data for the same period at six coastal AWSs: Yantian
International Container Terminal (YICT), Mawan Port (MWP), Shekou Ferry Terminal (SFT) in Shenzhen and Hong Kong
Observatory (HKO), Cheung Chau Island (CCH), Waglan Island (WGL) in Hong Kong, are used to build the statistical
relationship between the wind gusts and TCs¡¯ main characteristics. The relationship between the wind gust and TCs¡¯
main characteristics are clearly illustrated with novel figures in which the local wind observations are projected onto the
TC¡¯s track. The probability of gale occurrence (wind gust >= 17m/s) at these six stations are also computed and
synthesized in figures. Analyses results show that the wind induced by offshore TCs is strongly affected by the
surrounding circumstances of the stations. In North Hemisphere, the wind gust observed at AWS is weaker if the land is
at its Southeast. By contrast the wind gust observed at AWS is stronger if its Southeast is open water. Usually, Hong
Kong coastal stations, which are more open to the South China Sea, suffer more from wind gusts induced by TCs than
the coastal stations in Shenzhen. The most dangerous area is Northeast quadrant of TCs. At this quadrant, Typhoons
which is at the distance of more than 400kms might incur gale at coastal stations in South China.
File Size : 1,760,075 bytes
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Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Extreme events, natural variability and climate change
Date Published : 28/08/2015
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