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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Flood risk management and adaptation : The effect of grobal climate change on water level prediction for a river flowing through peatrand i...
The effect of grobal climate change on water level prediction for a river flowing through peatrand in indonesia
Author : CHIAKI YOSHIDA (1), MAKOTO NAKATSUGAWA (2) & SHUN KUDO (3)
his study is water level forecasts for the Kahayan River in Indonesia. In recent years, peatland in that
basin has been drying as a result of the development of agricultural, and such drying has caused more frequent largescale
wildfires there. Also due to effects of a slight rainfall, large amounts of greenhouse gases have been emitted from
peat fire in the subject area of this study. The purpose of this study is to forecast rainfall and river water levels and to
provide the forecast information to mitigate peat fires. Specifically, rainfall prediction was done first by using the rainfall
values from ground rain gauges, the dataset provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the
Nearest-Neighbor Method (NNM) is one of the pattern matching method. Then, water level prediction was done by
inputting the predicted rainfall values into the hydrological model. In forecasting the water level, climate changes such as
those related to El Niño were taken into consideration by incorporating the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at the Pacific
Ocean off the coast of Peru into the forecast factors. The accuracy of water level forecasts times of low water in the dry
season with scant rainfall was improved by using the lower limit value of predicted rainfall based on the error evaluation.
It was demonstrated that long-term water level forecasts with 1- to 3-month lead times were able to be done with
reasonable accuracy. The results will be useful for basin management that better prevents the wildfires of the peatland.Form Required :
File Size : 1,037,215 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Flood risk management and adaptation
Date Published : 28/08/2015
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