IAHR, founded in 1935, is a worldwide independent member-based organisation of engineers and water specialists working in fields related to the hydro-environmental sciences and their practical application. Activities range from river and maritime hydraulics to water resources development and eco-hydraulics, through to ice engineering, hydroinformatics, and hydraulic machinery.
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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT : Special sessions : Development of future tropical cyclone 100-year floodplain in a changing climate
Development of future tropical cyclone 100-year floodplain in a changing climate
Author : MATTHEW V. BILSKIE(1), SCOTT C. HAGEN(2) & JENNIFER L. IRISH(3)
EXTENDED ABSTRACT
Global sea levels are estimated to rise between 0.2 m and 2.0 m by the year 2100 (Parris et al. 2012), and in conjunction with tropical cyclones, flood risk is projected to increase (Lin et al. 2012). As the rate of sea level rise (SLR) increases, the coast and coastal land margins will likely be altered in a dramatic fashion (e.g., increased shoreline erosion and wetland migration) with increased population densities. Previous work has included either brute force or static modeling approaches when simulating the risk of coastal flooding under climate change (Poulter and Halpin 2008). More recent research has begun to consider dynamic modeling approaches and simple modifications to the landscape (Smith et al. 2010, Hagen and Bacopoulos 2012, Atkinson et al. 2013, Bilskie et al. 2014, Passeri et al. 2014). An area of current research is assessing
coastal flood risk under a changing climate, and incorporating SLR and landscape changes to determine how inundation patterns may change in the future. One method of assessing risk is via computing return period flood surfaces, such as the 100- (0.1% chance) or 500-year (0.2% chance) floodplain (Taylor et al. 2015). With studies showing the high non-linearity of storm surge across the floodplain under SLR, the research community must move past a simple superposition method that elevates existing floodplain surfaces by a given SLR.
File Size : 1,597,107 bytes
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Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 36th Congress - The Hague (2015) ALL CONTENT
Article : Special sessions
Date Published : 02/10/2015
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