IAHR, founded in 1935, is a worldwide independent member-based organisation of engineers and water specialists working in fields related to the hydro-environmental sciences and their practical application. Activities range from river and maritime hydraulics to water resources development and eco-hydraulics, through to ice engineering, hydroinformatics, and hydraulic machinery.
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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 35th IAHR Congress - Chengdu (2013) : THEME 7 - WATER RESOURCES AND HYDROINFORMATICS : Assessing Water Security Issues Using System Dynamics: Examples and Potential for Wider Development
Assessing Water Security Issues Using System Dynamics: Examples and Potential for Wider Development
Author : Janez Su?nik, Dragan A. Savi?, Lydia S. Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia and Zoran Kapelan
This paper introduces the global interconnected water, food, and energy system, and how each sector is proving to be of more concern as supplies peak and as demand increases. On top of this are the potential impacts of climate and policy changes. We briefly introduce system dynamics modelling as an effective paradigm for the simulation of complex, feedback-driven systems such as the global water-food-energy network. A suite of recent systems modelling efforts are presented that aim to show the usefulness, power and flexibility of system dynamics when used for this kind of analysis. However, the studies also highlight many of the limitations of current modelling efforts including a narrow spatial scale (regional, national), or limited breadth, usually focussing on only one, or at best two, of the sectors with significant drivers being neglected in simulations. We finish with an evaluation of how systems modelling could develop over the next few years, building on the groundbreaking work from 50 years ago, 'The Limits to Growth'. It is argued that the development of intra-sector models, while not trivial, is relatively straightforward in this context. Of greater concern is the definition and development of the connections between the sectors, and of building in the external drivers which also play a crucial role in long-term system behaviour (e.g. population and climate change). The challenges in simulating the potential behaviour of the water-food-energy system should not be underestimated. However, with sustained, dedicated effort and research, the shortcomings of previous efforts and challenges can be overcome. This has the potential to alter how large-scale policy decisions are made, and if the work is communicated broadly and appropriately, could offer profound implications for society as a whole.
File Size : 103,180 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 35th IAHR Congress - Chengdu (2013)
Date Published : 19/07/2016
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