IAHR, founded in 1935, is a worldwide independent member-based organisation of engineers and water specialists working in fields related to the hydro-environmental sciences and their practical application. Activities range from river and maritime hydraulics to water resources development and eco-hydraulics, through to ice engineering, hydroinformatics, and hydraulic machinery.
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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 35th IAHR Congress - Chengdu (2013) : THEME 7 - WATER RESOURCES AND HYDROINFORMATICS : Assessing Groundwater Modeling Uncertainty by Model Averaging Method
Assessing Groundwater Modeling Uncertainty by Model Averaging Method
Author : Xiankui Zeng, Dong Wang, Jichun Wu, Xiaobin Zhu and Lachun Wang
Parameter and conceptual model are the main sources of groundwater modelling uncertainty. Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA), conceptual model uncertainty is assessed in this study. A Mean Euclidean distance based BMA method (MCMC-MED) is proposed, and is compared with the traditional method: summation based BMA method (MCMC-Sum), based on a synthetical model. Results demonstrate that the MCMC-Sum is more effective to identify the true model structure than MCMC-MED. However, MCMC-MED method obtains more consistent posterior probabilities of conceptual models than MCMC-Sum.
File Size : 318,661 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 35th IAHR Congress - Chengdu (2013)
Article : THEME 7 - WATER RESOURCES AND HYDROINFORMATICS
Date Published : 19/07/2016
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