IAHR, founded in 1935, is a worldwide independent member-based organisation of engineers and water specialists working in fields related to the hydro-environmental sciences and their practical application. Activities range from river and maritime hydraulics to water resources development and eco-hydraulics, through to ice engineering, hydroinformatics, and hydraulic machinery.
Log On
About IAHRDirectoryCommitteesMy IAHRNews & JournalseLibraryeShopEventsJoin IAHRWorld CongressDonate
spacer.gif
spacer.gif eLibrary
spacer.gif eLibrary
You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 34th Congress - Brisbane (2011) : THEME 7: Hydroinformatics : Predicting ocean surge: optimized ensembles of data-driven chaos-based models in phase space
Predicting ocean surge: optimized ensembles of data-driven chaos-based models in phase space
Author : M. Siek and D.P. Solomatine
A problem of forecasting ocean surge based on high-frequency data on surge is considered. A technique based on optimized model ensembles in high-dimensional phase space is presented. Time-delayed phase space is built using the principles of chaos theory. The forecasts are made in this space by the adaptive local data-driven multi-models based on the neighbors of the current vector. The method is tested to make forecasts of storm surge for the North Sea. The results show that the multi-model ensemble model has a higher accuracy compared to a standard chaotic model or a single data-driven model.
File Size : 305,569 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 34th Congress - Brisbane (2011)
Article : THEME 7: Hydroinformatics
Date Published : 01/07/2011
Download Now