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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 32nd Congress - Venice (2007) : THEME B: Data Acquisition and Processing For Scientific Knowledge and Public Awareness. : Modeling the impact of climate change on hydrologic cycle and the diffuse nutrient transport for l...
Modeling the impact of climate change on hydrologic cycle and the diffuse nutrient transport for lake balaton catchment
Author : Laszlo Koncsos, Gyorgy Fonyo
The aim of present paper is to model the effect of global climate change on a regional level from watershed management aspect. This research work was part of the CLIME EC FP5 project (http://clime.tkk.fi), which goal was to assess the regional-local changes of the behavior of different small European watersheds and lakes for the driving forces of predicted climate scenarios. Present research work was focused on the investigation of the hydrologic cycle and the nutrient transport modification of River Zala - Lake Balaton watershed, caused by change in climatic conditions of the watershed. For the elaborated investigation an own developed physically based distributed parameter hydrodynamic and diffuse nutrient watershed model was applied. For model calibration and validation measured data time series were available for the 1997-2000 period. Predictions and control scenario driving data of the watershed model came from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, http://www.ipcc.ch) based dynamic global and regional climate models. River Zala and is the major affluent to Lake Balaton, which is the largest shallow lake in Europe. Major water discharge and also nutrient load (approximately 50% of the total phosphorus load) of the lake origins from Zala watershed. The importance of diffuse nutrient transport of the river watershed is high, 20% of the total phosphorus of the river catchment origins from point sources, and 80% from non-point ones. The applied physically based diffuse nutrient model was developed to calculate the
rainfall-runoff conditions, non-point origin suspended solid and phosphorus load dynamics for watersheds. Results of present paper give an elaborated picture of the hydrologic behavior and phosphorus load of River Zala watershed under different climate conditions. This results include time series and spatial distribution for all the major parts of the hydrologic cycle such as runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration and as the most important part, water discharge for River Zala. Watershed nutrient transport results include total phosphorus, particulate phosphorus, dissolved phosphorus and suspended solids. During the research, different IPPC based scenarios were used, therefore model predictions estimates not only the rough trends of the different elements of the hydrologic cycle and nutrient transport of the river watershed, but gave the opportunity to examine a spatially and temporary elaborated picture of the watershed response. Estimations also embrace the examination of extreme events.
File Size : 216,115 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 32nd Congress - Venice (2007)
Article : THEME B: Data Acquisition and Processing For Scientific Knowledge and Public Awareness.
Date Published : 01/07/2007
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