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You are here : eLibrary : IAHR World Congress Proceedings : 32nd Congress - Venice (2007) : THEME D: Maritime and Coastal Research and Engineering : The modern predictability of the 1966 big veniceflood
The modern predictability of the 1966 big veniceflood
Author : Luigi Cavaleri , Valeria Masato, Georg Umgiesser, Luciana Bertotti, Roberto Buizza
In November 1966 Venice suffered its worst historical storm, when high waves and a large storm surge pushed the sea level on the coast and within the lagoon at heights never recorded before. At the time there was only a limited warning of the forthcoming event, and the local population was totally unprepared to face the consequences. We have asked ourselves if, should a similar event happen again, we would be able to issue a timely forecast. To answer this question we have hindcast the storm using the data available at the time, but with modern technology, i.e. using the present oceanographic and meteorological models and the presently available computer power. On top of this, we have issued virtual forecasts, i.e. we have run the models in forecast mode starting from the different situations existing on the various days before the storm (the 4th of November). The results have been extremely enlightening. It turns out that the first warning of an exceptional storm could have been issued, with modern technology, since six days before the storm. From October 30 onward there would have been also a correct quantification and timing of the surge in the town. This result is very promising for the present capabilities. Given the enormous amount of data presently available, orders of magnitudes larger than forty years ago, we derive that at least the same order of predictability is to be expected today for large significant storms.
File Size : 440,224 bytes
File Type : Adobe Acrobat Document
Chapter : IAHR World Congress Proceedings
Category : 32nd Congress - Venice (2007)
Article : THEME D: Maritime and Coastal Research and Engineering
Date Published : 01/07/2007
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