Uncertainty in Hydrological Modelling and Water Resources Management
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The IAHR Webinar on Uncertainty in Hydrological Modelling and Water Resources Management will be held on Thursday 14 October 2021 at:

07:00-09:00 | UTC Time

09:00-11:00 | Central European Summer Time, UTC+2

15:00-17:00 | China Standard Time, UTC+8

03:00-05:00 | Eastern American Time, UTC-5

More local time can be found by clicking here.

Lecturer: Professor emeritus, Dr. Scient Jens Christian Refsgaard, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland


The lecture will start explaining why uncertainty assessments are important for hydrological modellers as well as for water resources managers. Then commonly used uncertainty concepts and terminologies are explained and discussed – what is uncertainty and how can it be characterized? This will be followed by an introduction to a broad range og uncertainty tools such as uncertainty matrix, sensitivity analysis, error propagation, Monte Carlo, ensemble modelling, NUSAP and expert elicitation. The tools and their application will be illustrated by examples from practical cases. At last a major case study on observational and model predictive uncertainties are presented.


Jens Christian Refsgaard (born 1951) is Professor (emeritus since 2019) in water resources at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). Former employments include associate professor at the Technical University of Denmark and chief hydrologist/head of research at Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI). Fellow, Danish Academy of Technical Sciences (2005-date). Member of Scientitic and Technological Board, EU Joint Programme Initiative Water (2011-2018). Supervisor for 20 PhD students and external examiner for 27 PhD theses at universities in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Belgium, Finland, The Netherlands, Australia and India. Associate Editor, Hydrological Processes. Evaluator of research programmes at several universities and research institutes. Co-ordinator for several major EU funded and Danish funded research projects. Co-ordinator/team leader of several multi-disciplinary international research and capacity building projects in Eastern Europe, Asia and Africa – working experience from more than 20 countries. Published more than 150 journal papers with more than 6500 ISI citation (h index 41 in ISI Web of Science) and 1500 citations (h-indes 54) on Google Scholar. Major research interests: distributed catchment modeling including groundwater/surface water interaction, assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology, impacts of land use and agricultural pracice on hydrology, good modelling practie and uncertainty assessment in the modelling process.


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