Author(s): Reihaneh Morid; Yukihiro Shimatani; Tatsuro Sato
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Climate change; IHA; SWAT; Aquatics life
Abstract: Japanese archipelago is expected to be affected by climate change due to its large distance from north to south. In order to assess the impact of this phenomenon, it is important to focus on water resources since its first influence is on this part of ecosystem. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling is one of the most widely used models for demonstrating how the effects of climate change is on watershed system. Any kind of changes in a watershed system can have different effects on environmental flow component as well as river hydraulic. IHA (Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration) software was another tool used in this study to assess impacts of climate change on hydrological and environmental indicator in the Kikuchi River. In this regard, at first, the future climate change in the region was projected using HadGEM2-ES model in three 30-year periods2017＿2045,2046＿2075 and 2076＿2099 considering all 4 representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Afterward, the Kikichi streamflow was simulated by SWAT model for baseline period (1986-2016) and future. Finally, the magnitude, duration, timing, and frequency of extreme flows were analyzed by using IHA software. Results showed an increase for discharge under all four RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6, and 8.5) from 17.3% to 20.2%. This phenomenon will affect environmental flow components such as the peaks of high flows as well as large flood frequency which will make some risks for aquatics life.
Year: 2018