Author(s): Jinggang Chu; Yong Peng

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Abstract: Improving the utilization of water resources is one of the important measures to alleviate water resource crisis. Raising the decision level of reservoir operation is helpful to improve the utilization of water resources, increase the efficiency of electric power generation, and promote the development of the national economy. In the scheduling of reservoir optimal operation, both the unknown runoff and the forecasting uncertainty are the key points. The traditional “single” precipitation forecast has higher uncertainty, so runoff forecast with “single” precipitation forecast is not accurate enough, which leads to the deviations of reservoir operation. In order to take full consideration of the uncertainty of precipitation forecasts, a runoff description model using ensemble precipitation forecasts that considers adequate uncertainty in precipitation will be developed in this paper. Furthermore, an optimal operation model based on stochastic dynamic programming is also developed in order to maximize the total power generation of scheduling period under the constraint of firm power. In a case study of the basin upstream to the Huanren reservoir, its optimal operation will be calculated by using the ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Results show an increase of over four percent in power generation, demonstrating the practical value of ensemble precipitation forecasts to the scheduling of reservoir operation.

DOI:

Year: 2018