Author(s): Apurba Das; Ananya Kowshal; Sujata Budhathoki; Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: River Ice; River Ice Breakup and Jamming
Abstract: In cold regions, river ice jamming can lead to intense flooding. The formation of ice jams depends on a combination of complex interactions of various hydro-meteorological variables. As the onset of these types of floods is very rapid and unpredictable, they are often very damaging and challenging to respond to and mitigate. While ice jams commonly appear during the spring breakup, mid-winter breakup of an ice cover can also result in ice jamming and flooding. Moreover, brief thaw-freeze cycles can trigger mid-winter breakup when air temperatures are consistently above zero degrees for several days during winter. There is growing concern that changing climatic patterns have profoundly impacted winter ice regimes and are affecting the frequencies and severity of mid-winter jamming. This research aims to improve our understanding of the impacts of climatic factors on mid-winter breakup under future climatic conditions. A combination of the hydroclimatic analysis and hydrological model results was applied to assess the impacts of climate change on the frequency of mid-winter breakup along the transborder (New Brunswick/Maine) Saint John River in North America. The results show that hydroclimatic trends in the future make the river more vulnerable to mid-winter breakup and increase the severity of ice-jam flooding. Overall, this research can help to improve ice-jam flood management and suggest appropriate mitigation strategies to reduce the impacts of ice jamming along the river.
Year: 2022