Author(s): Mohammad Karamouz; Sara Nazif; Mehdi Dehghani
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Vulnerability; Disaster; Priority; Intensity Index; Bayesian Algorithm; Reservoirs
Abstract: Reservoirs are the most important component of a water supply system in each region that are usually threatened by natural or man-made disasters. The preparedness of reservoirs operating system could mitigate the possible damages and costs and increase water supply security. In this paper, an algorithm is developed to determine the vulnerability of reservoirs from different possible disasters. The proposed algorithm is applied to a large reservoir located at the center part of Iran. First the most probable hazards and high risks events in reservoir operation are determined. The vulnerability of the reservoir from each disaster is determined based on the possible impacts on water supply quantity and quality, and the structural stability. Some indices are developed to quantify different aspects of disasters that impacts on the reservoir. This mechanism is necessary for further analysis and helps to make reasonable decisions. In the next step, the ranking algorithms are used to prioritize the recognized disasters based on the objectives of the reservoir operation and its associated risks. The Bayesian algorithm is applied to update the disasters occurrence probability distribution using the new information and the ranking of disasters is reevaluated. These ranking methods could be used in decision making for improving the preventive actions in the reservoir integrity and performance.
Year: 2009