Author(s): Juan Walter Cabrera Cabrera
Keywords: Bcd model; AOGCM; Climate change; Drought; Water Availability
Abstract: In this document, the possible effects of climate change on drought occurrence in the next 90 years are discussed based on existing data and projected changes in temperatures and precipitation until 2099 (Ruostenoja et al., 2003). This methodology could be used to analyze the effectiveness of possible mitigation measures. First, the abcd rainfall-runoff model (Salas, 2003) was used to obtain projected discharges in the period 1961 – 2009. After that, percentual projection of precipitation and temperatures are used to obtain projected discharges until 2099; these series and the rainfall-runoff model are used to obtain a projected discharges time series. Finally, projected discharges and precipitation are compared with the previously estimated agricultural demand to analyze the occurrence of drought in 2010-2099. This analysis was made using changes projected by the Hadcm3 model because it suggests the most critical scenario. The final results suggest a strong increase in magnitude and occurrence of drought in the next 90 years under the A1FI emission scenario (Ruostenoja et al., 2003), which could be mitigated by improving the efficiency of the irrigation system.