Author(s): Daisuke Nohara; Hiroki Saito
Linked Author(s): Daisuke Nohara
Keywords: Reservoir operation; Preliminary release; Ensemble prediction; Flood; Impact assessment
Abstract: A Monte Carlo-based method to analyze effectiveness and risks of integrated operation of a multipurpose reservoir for flood management considering real-time ensemble hydrological predictions is developed in this study. Preliminary release operation, in which water stored in the reservoir is released just in advance of a flood event considering real-time hydrological predictions, is considered as an integrated reservoir operation method. A simulated generation method of ensemble hydrological predictions with a certain error structure is developed in order to generate a number of ensemble hydrological predictions for Monte Carlo simulation. A number of simulations of reservoir operation are conducted with consideration of the generated ensemble hydrological predictions to analyze the effects of preliminary release operation based on ensemble hydrological predictions. The result of the analysis can provide reservoir managers with quantitative and science-based information on expected benefits and risks to introduce operational hydrological predictions into reservoir operation from the long-term viewpoint.