Author(s): Sara Masia; Janez Susnik; Serena Marras; Simone Mereu; Donatella Spano; Antonio Trabucco
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Irrigation demand; Mediterranean; Reservoirs; Vulnerability; Water management
Abstract: Increased drought risk in Southern Europe is expected due to changing rainfall patterns and increasing evapotranspiration. Water availability is crucial in semi-arid Mediterranean countries, where irrigation is essential for crop production. In this work, irrigated agriculture vulnerability of three Sardinian irrigation districts and their associated reservoirs is assessed. The simultaneous impact of climate change on water inflow to the reservoir, open surface evaporation, and water supply is evaluated and then integrated into indicators. Vulnerability Index is calculated to define future reservoir adequacy in guaranteeing irrigated crops. The analysis is conducted by comparing the baseline (1976-2005) with the future (2036-2065) climate under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Simulation of Evapotranspiration of Applied Water model is incorporated into a GIS platform to compute crop irrigation demand. Changes in water inflow to reservoirs and evaporation losses are estimated. Results show a decreasing resilience and increasing vulnerability of irrigated agriculture under climate change in each case study. The highest resilience is estimated in Monte Pranu and Stretta di Calamaiu reservoir while the highest vulnerability in the Cuga-Alto Temo system. Climate change may only partially affect irrigation in resilient systems, where storage capacity and water entering into the reservoir is higher than water outflow.
Year: 2018