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Simulation of Possible Scenarios of Precipitations on River Basin of Water Reservoir with Considerate of Climatic Change

Author(s): V. V. Ilinich; I. F. Asaulyak; A. I. Belolubtsev; V. A. Rashupkina

Linked Author(s): Vitaly Ilinich

Keywords: Precipitation; Stochastic simulation; River basin; Water reservoir

Abstract: At the moment, it is generally accepted that global climate warming takes place. This process leads to increased precipitation in many regions, since warm air can contain more moisture and a higher temperature also accelerates the hydrological cycle, which should contribute to the increased precipitation and evaporation. Such hypothesis has to confirm for every region, since there are exceptions. Accordingly, the hypothesis checked in respect to precipitation of Moscow Meteorological station, which has observation during 135 years. It was defined, that precipitation amount of last decades is differed significantly from previous years, therefore, special method of Monte-Carlo was tested for precipitation simulation with discreteness of ten day periods according to data observations for the last 30 years, which represents more really today climatic situation. Such scenarios are needed for modeling of water reservoirs operation. The test results were enough satisfactory.

DOI:

Year: 2018

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