Author(s): Thameur Chaibi; Ahmed Musa Shamseddin

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: Climate change; Predictions; Uncertainty; Hydrology; River basins; Afric

Abstract: Besides existing challenges to water management under scarcity in Africa, climate change has the potential to impose additional pressures on water resources. This study aims at reviewing and identifying the climate change signals presented in 61 peer reviewed papers with respect to seven largest African river basins, viz. Nile, Senegal, Volta, Niger, Congo, Zambezi and Limpopo. Thirty percent of the reviewed papers focussed on the Nile basin while only 13% reported on the Congo basin. The climate change signals were segregated into decreasing, increasing and uncertain trends. Results stated the overwhelming tendency for using unmitigated future emission pathways. The use of ensemble models superiors the individual and synthetic scenarios. While projected temperature showed robust increasing trends, rainfall dominated by uncertain trends. The hydrological impacts were assessed through 19 hydrological models with accepted considerations of land uses at 52% of the cases. Modellers managed to understand and build robust rainfall-runoff relationships in Zambezi, Limpopo, Senegal and partially in Niger but failed in Congo and Nile. Climate change impacts on runoff, stream flows and evapotranspiration should be interpreted cautiously. Further researches are recommended to incorporate the effects of human interventions (e.g. dams) and land use changes in climate change-hydrological modelling.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2019.1576699

Year: 2020