Author(s): Samuel Quisca; Julio Martinez

Linked Author(s): Samuel Quisca

Keywords: Numerical simulation; Tsunami; Forestry; Tsunami modeling

Abstract: Peru is located in a region of plate tectonic interaction, the subduction of the oceanic plate (Nazca) below the continental plate (South America), and giving rise to a large number of earthquakes. Within this context and according to its history, Peru has endured the effects of large earthquakes accompanied by tsunamis, some small and others very large and destructive, Martinez and Tavera (2014). Among the most important tsunami-generating earthquakes are those that occurred in 1582, 1604, 1746, 1868, 2001 and 2007. The earthquake of October 28, 1746, with an estimated magnitude of 8.6 Mw, generated a large tsunami that affected the central coast of Peru, causing absolute destruction in the port of Callao with waves of more than 20 meters and flooding of approximately 5 kilometers. According to Silgado (1978), the victims of the earthquake and tsunami reached 4000 people. Today, an event of this nature would alter the demographic, social and economic order of the Central Region of Peru. In such a scenario, the district of Chorrillos, located in the department of Lima, would be seriously affected; therefore, it is indispensable to know, in the best possible way, the danger that a tsunami represents and the vulnerability to which the population of this district is exposed, in order to manage its risk and thus avoid or reduce the impact of the possible disaster. The importance of the present study is framed within the generation of the most probable scenario, using models of heterogeneous seismic sources and topographic and bathymetric data with spatial resolution less than 5 meters. The TSUNAMI-N2 algorithm, developed by researchers from the Center for Research and Disaster Control of Tohoku University, Japan, under the direction of Dr. Fumihiko Imamura, in the framework of the TIME project (Tsunami Inundation Modelling Exchange) of the IOC (Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission), was used to carry out this research. In addition, the calculation of hydrodynamic parameters of the resulting flood is implemented. The main results obtained show that the flooding occurs 20 minutes after the earthquake and reaches a distance of 1 km with height values greater than 9 meters. The hydrodynamic parameters, confirm a high level of danger, the flood depth is high (> 2 m) along the entire coastal edge affected by flooding, the flow velocities exceed 1.5 m/s, which translates into high levels of danger to people. Based on these results, adequate risk management should be implemented in the event of a possible tsunami disaster.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/IAHR-39WC252171192022602

Year: 2022