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Prediction of rapid sea ice break-up and melt

Author(s): Denise Sudom; Benjamin Ward; Bruno Tremblay; John Broderick; David Watson

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Keywords: Sea Ice; Ice Formation; Growth and Dynamics

Abstract: While winds and currents are often the main drivers of sea ice dynamics, wave actions can greatly influence the composition and extent of the ice field. Ice forecasts can be less reliable during and after storm events, hindered by the complexity of wave-ice interactions and heat fluxes in the marginal ice zone near the ice edge. The deterioration of first-year sea ice is a complex process involving floe breakage, melt and decay. In addition, the waves which induce ice breakage are affected by the ice composition as they propagate into the ice cover. This paper provides a review of methodologies for assessing and modelling sea ice deterioration in the marginal ice zone. The work was motivated by the challenge in accurately forecasting sea ice in the vicinity of the Grand Banks offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, and that region is used to give context to examples of deterioration processes. Uncertainties and availability of appropriate environmental input data for modelling are discussed.

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Year: 2022

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