Author(s): Jacques Ganoulis; Petros Anagnostopoulos; Iraklis Mbimbas
Linked Author(s): Jacques Ganoulis
Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: Risk-based water resources management is a very important alternative methodology for analysing water resources problems, mainly because of different uncertainties inherent to real situations. In fact, large natural variabilities, such as those due to possible climate change, may induce important uncertainties, which together with uncertainties related to human activities may result in failure to achieve the project objectives. The analysis of such uncertainties and the study of the possibility of occurrence of incidents or failures are necessary in water quality projects. In water resources engineering risk may be defined as being of two different types: (1) Probabilistic Risk, which is estimated by using the theory of probability, and (2) Fuzzy Risk, which is analysed by use of fuzzy logic-based calculus. The fuzzy set theory, in combination with mathematical modelling is proposed in this paper in order to assess uncertainties in estimating output variables in water pollution problems. Uncertainties in input variables and values of physical parameters are first introduced as fuzzy numbers. Then, uncertainties are propagated by using fuzzy calculus and output variables are estimated in the form of fuzzy numbers. Examples of application in simplified and real cases illustrate the capabilities of the above methodology to evaluate risks in water pollution engineering problems.
Year: 2001