Author(s): M. Karaca; R. J. Nicholls; E. Kahya
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Climate Change; Turkish Coastlines; Vulnerability Analysis
Abstract: This study comprises a first order evaluation of the implications of Accelerated Sea-level Rise (ASLR) for Turkey. Global sea-level rise during the 20 century has been estimated between 10 and 20 cm while for the Mediterranean, and Black Sea regions, the sealevel rise is around 12cm in the last century. Although coastal cities cover less than 5% of the total surface area of Turkey, over 30 million people live in coastal areas. The Marmara region around Istanbul has the highest population density at all regions. More than 60% of the GNP in Turkey is produced in the coastal strip from Tekirdag to Kocaeli (along the northern shoreline of the Marmara Sea). The Common Methodology of the IPCC CZMS, (1992) was applied to both Turkey and Istanbul province assuming 1-m ASLR scenario, Turkey lies in the class of low risk countries. The preliminary assessment of vulnerability analysis yields about 6% of its GNP for capital loss, and about 10% of its GNP for protection/adaptation costs of the country. This means a big economical loss for a developing country like Turkey. Rising sea-level will neither cause big changes or shifts in the coastline of Turkey but the rate of the cliff recession will accelerate. This will increase the frequency and extent of landslides and destroy portions of coastal roads and interrupt daily life in coastlines, particularly in the eastern Black Sea coastlines.
Year: 2003