Author(s): Jon Larue; Avdhesh K. Tyagi

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Abstract: Sensitivity analysis of groundwater modeling platforms traditionally involves considering different levels of parametric uncertainty. The true uncertainty associated with any hydrogeologic parameter should be recognized as a combination of two distinct types of uncertainty: vagueness of a parameter and the statistical randomness of the parameter. Unfortunately, most groundwater simulation platforms unrealistically or erroneously assume that the uncertainty associated with any parameter can be completely accounted for with statistical methods. In reality, the dominate type of uncertainty existing in the hydrogeological modeling environment results from the inherent vagueness of parametric values, not the randomness of the values. Fuzzy mathematical methods can provide a useful methodology to manage the uncertainty associated with vaguely defined parameters, especially in situations where the cost to obtain accurate parametric information is prohibitively high.

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Year: 1997