Author(s): Ila Chawla, Pradeep P. Mujumdar
Linked Author(s): Pradeep P Mujumdar
Keywords: Land use, climate projections, PEST, VIC, ensemble average
Abstract: Quantification of uncertainties in projecting the impacts of land use and climate change on future streamflow simulations is of paramount importance for sustainable water resources management. Uncertainties may arise from different sources such as input data, hydrologic models and/or natural variability of the hydrologic system. In this paper, we address uncertainty in streamflow simulations due to future projections of land use and climate. Although there are several studies reported in literature where uncertainty due to climate projections arising from the use of General Circulation Models (GCMs) in streamflow simulations is quantified in detail, there is dearth of studies where land use projections are considered as a source of uncertainty. In this paper, several plausible combinations of land use and climate projections are used to obtain multiple streamflow simulations. The investigation is carried out over the Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India using a semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model is coupled with Parameter ESTimation (PEST) algorithm to obtain the optimum set of model parameter values. Uncertainty in the streamflow projections is addressed by obtaining the best representative of future estimate for the streamflow along with its bounds using reliability ensemble averaging approach. Results from the case study indicate that the streamflow from the UGB may reduce significantly in future
Year: 2017