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Effect of Param Eter Uncertainty on in-Stream Organic Toxicant Concentration Predictions Using Toxiwasp

Author(s): John J. Warwick; Mimi Dannel

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Abstract: As public and regulatory emphasis on the control of toxic substancesincreases,toxics models wil1 play an important role in environmentaldecision making. However,in order to effectively utilize mathematicalmodels,the uncertainty or risk associated with model predictions shouldbe considered.This study specifically addresses the impact of inputparameter uncertainty upon the computation of volatilization rates,andthe subsequent effect on predicted in-stream organic chemica1concentrations as modeled by TOXIWASP.The TOXIWASP programis part ofthe WASP3 modeling system(Ambrose,et al,1986)。Volatilization islisted as a possibly important fate process for 52 of the 129 EPA prioritypollutants(Mills,et al.,1985)。since volatilization is a significantmechanism of removal for many toxic organic compounds,accurate predictionof this rate is fundamental to estimating the concentration of thesechemicals in water bodies.

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Year: 1989

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