Author(s): David Prandle
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Abstract: Though predictions about the extent of the 'greenhouse effect'arenotoriously unreliable,various scenarios suggest a global atmospheric warmingof 1-3℃ over the next 50 years.This could produce a rise in mean sea level(m.s.1.)of between 0.3 and 1.5m together with an increase in rainfal1 mainly athigher 1atitudes.Increases in m.s.1.of this magnitude are unlikely to producesignificant changes in shelf sea tides(where depths are of the order of 100m).Thus while tides at estuary mouths may remain unchanged,the change in m.s.1.may significantly affect tidal propagation within shallow estuaries.Suchchanges may extend not only to elevations and currents but also to the mixingand sedimentary regime and be especially important for(increased)intrusion ofsalt water.Accompanying changes in rainfall,and hence river flow,may furthercomplicate predictions of the latter effect(Hul1 et al 1986). The present examination of the effect of a rise inm.s.1.on tides andcurrents in estuaries is not intended to provide quantitative results but moreto explore the extent and nature of such changes.
Year: 1989